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folder icon   04-24-2008, 02:11 PM
The Primary Mess Post #1
so and so

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So first question. Are Hillary and Obama seriously jeopardizing the Dem presidency over this fight?

Second question. Who do you think would stand a better chance in the general election?

Third question. How should the Dem's fix their primary system so this shit doesn't happen again, or do you think it's a good thing?

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folder icon   04-24-2008, 02:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by so and so
So first question. Are Hillary and Obama seriously jeopardizing the Dem presidency over this fight?

Honestly, they are and they aren't. Regardless of which one will win, the majority of democrats will vote for either canidate. However, undoubtedly there are small cells of rifts, and independents who may see McCain as a more suitable or stable choice based on the apparent rift in the Democratic party.

Hillary and Obama are exposing each others weaknesses and "skeletons in the closet" while McCain has virtually gone untouched. Basically they are doing his work for him and whichever does win out, McCain will have an effortlessly gained amount of information at his disposal.
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Second question. Who do you think would stand a better chance in the general election?

Both have their flaws, both have their strengths. Either will probably perform relatively as well as the other.

I'd suggest Obama has the edge. He is more charismatic, more idealistic, and doesn't have the baggage of Bill. I sort of get a feeling of Hillary as being a person with zero empathy and I'm sure I'm not the only one with that feeling.
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Third question. How should the Dem's fix their primary system so this shit doesn't happen again, or do you think it's a good thing?

Split the party. There are some huge differences in ideologies between large sections of the organizations. I do not think the democrats can honestly function as a cohesive unit any longer. Most hate each other as much as they hate republicans.

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folder icon   04-25-2008, 11:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by so and so
So first question. Are Hillary and Obama seriously jeopardizing the Dem presidency over this fight?

I hope so.
Quote:
Originally Posted by so and so
Second question. Who do you think would stand a better chance in the general election?

Of the two, I think Obama has a better chance of winning the presidency than Clinton. That being said, I want Clinton to get the nomination because I think McCain has a better shot of beating her than Obama. Not saying he couldn't do it, but it'd be easier with Clinton.
Quote:
Originally Posted by so and so
Third question. How should the Dem's fix their primary system so this shit doesn't happen again, or do you think it's a good thing?

We talked about this in my government class (well, I didn't talk, I watched the class at home on TV): If the Democrats used the system of selecting candidates that the Republicans use, I think Clinto would have been selected by now (I don't remember precisely which one, but at this point the Democrats would have a candidate). Interestlingly, if the Republicans used the Democrats' system, Mitt Romney would still be in the race.

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folder icon   04-25-2008, 12:43 PM
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Luckily for the Reps that is not the case, as Romney could never win the general election. Mcain is a moderate Conservative, not a neo like Bush, so the neos who've enjoyed power over the party(and sometimes nation) over the past 2 decades are pissed that Mccain got the nomination. They failed at getting their social agendas passed during Bush's term, and they know that Mccain isn't going to jeoperdize more important issues in order to get those social agendas pushed through, so they are bitter. However, I'll be satisfied no matter who wins the presidency, as all three candidates are much more in tune with the average American than Bush was.


Here's something to think about- Because Hilllary and Barack are still duking it out, dems are showing up to the polls in record-breaking primary numbers. This fight has motivated a whole slew of new voters for the democratic party. The same cannot be said for the Reps. This close fight is giving the dems an inertia that'll help them bigtime come the fall.

I personally think Barack has a better chance at beating Mccain than Hillary. Barack is attracting all the new-time and disgruntled voters, while Hillary's advantage of the traditional vote will be split evenly with 73 year old Mccain.

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folder icon   04-25-2008, 01:08 PM
Post #5
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Gaggin, what are the two differing ideologies of the Dems, and is the fight between Hillary and Obama part of this?

According to the Economist, the biggest difference among voters is race/demographics. They worry if picking hillary will disenchant blacks, and picking Obama will disenchant women.

I forgot the biggest question. How important do you think Florida will be this time around? And, since Hillary had the edge there, a big edge, do you think having Obama would upset them from voting? Same with Ohio.

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folder icon   04-25-2008, 01:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaggin
Here's something to think about- Because Hilllary and Barack are still duking it out, dems are showing up to the polls in record-breaking primary numbers. This fight has motivated a whole slew of new voters for the democratic party. The same cannot be said for the Reps. This close fight is giving the dems an inertia that'll help them bigtime come the fall.


From what I've read though Democrats always show up big to the polls for the primaries while Republicans are usually less responsive. The problem is Democrats get mad at each other during primaries and then they miss out in the vote in November.

So and so, you asked Gaggin, but I think you meant me on your question.

From an outsider looking in (I do not really identify with any party, but I seem to vote more Republican than Democrat) I see a rift between traditional and new-age Democrats. Traditional being on the side of Hillary and new-age being Obama.

Obama leans much more towards the left that most traditional Democrats do while I think the younger Democrats are more apt to go for more liberal issues.

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folder icon   04-25-2008, 03:57 PM
Post #7
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I always have a tough time judging what the American mood and sensibilities are when it comes to very specific issues like the ones Obama and Clinton are hammering each other on. Internationally, Obama wins throughout the world and Clinton/McCain loses big time. However, of course, the choice is only up to Americans. I just would want Americans to take international relations into consideration for once in their elections like most other countries do... but that's tough to ask for a superpower.

The fight between the Democrat candidates i don't think is damaging their overall popularity but it is damaging their overall money stockpile. Considering that USA has zero spending limits in its election campaigns it'll make a huge difference.

If the super delegates are intelligent, they would notice obama's ability to gain far more money than Clinton and thus should split along that line of thought.

The primary system as it is, is fine but the idea of a primary system seems idiotic. I don't understand two things:

a) Why you have to register as a voter, and choose a party then. (Why do voters have to register at all? I realize its not an enshrined right in america but rather a privilege but don't you think it might be time to update your constitution to keep up with the rest of western world?)

b) If its the case that anybody can vote in a primary then, why should people who are politically against the party be allowed to vote? Won't they skew it in a unfavourable manner? (Why is not up to party members to choose a party leader? It's like saying the Tories in Canada get to choose the Liberal leader. Makes no sense)

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folder icon   04-26-2008, 10:05 AM
Post #8
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rules vary state by state. The two potential issues are:
1. Yes, we wouldn't want someone voting for the worst member of the opposing party just to skew their vote. I've met a couple people who did this.
2. On the other hand, it sucks having to choose one party and stick with it, even if you don't like a current candidate.

So, what do you do? Do you have someone only get to choose between parties once every four years? Should people have to choose one primary or the other? What about independents? What about people who want to choose the best candidates in each primary, and then pick between the two? Most states feel the first worry is just so much paranoia, a possible problem, whereas the second is a definate limit on freedom for all citizens.

I think most people figure that, in theory, if all citizens can vote in both primaries, then all people have an equal opportunity to sabotage each other, balancing out that problem, meanwhile, all citizens also have the right to pick their favorite candidate from each party - which usually wins out anyway. It would have to take a massive drive of voter sabateurs to have any effect on the primaries, and there's no way it could be kept secret. And I don't believe that party bosses should pick leaders. That's anti-democratic.

It seems to me the polling shouldn't be stretched out so long. It's been a year and we're still witnessing this pointless fight. I say pointless because the two candidates seem identical on issues. Obama's a better speaker, although he fumbled the last debate.

I think Ohio and Florida have proven they are very influential in the General election, so they should be earlier, possibly the first to vote. Other than that, there should be more states voting on Super Tuesday, with possibly just a few holdouts in May or so, to judge any shifts in voter opinion. I think that would help decisions get made faster and help save cash for the bigger game.

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folder icon   04-26-2008, 11:05 AM
Post #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by so and so
I think Ohio and Florida have proven they are very influential in the General election, so they should be earlier, possibly the first to vote. Other than that, there should be more states voting on Super Tuesday, with possibly just a few holdouts in May or so, to judge any shifts in voter opinion. I think that would help decisions get made faster and help save cash for the bigger game.

I think only one or two presidents (excluding the first ones) have won the election without Ohio. I know for a fact that no Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. It is a key state to lock down and a good indicator of what the rest of the nation thinks.

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folder icon   04-27-2008, 01:01 PM
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It's only anti-democratic for a party to choose its own leader in a two-party system. I think i should i have pointed that out to be more clear but that's largely what i meant. If i start up a political party, why should people who have nothing to with my political party decide, i shouldnt be its leader because they dont like me? Don't like me, dont vote for me.

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folder icon   04-28-2008, 01:11 PM
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exactly, America has a two party system. Unless you've got like 16 parties, and people have a real selection to choose from, yes, people have a vested interest in who is chosen. If people vote for you and hold your views, then they do have an interest in your party, they are members of it, even if temporarily, and they should have some say in how it's run.

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folder icon   04-28-2008, 04:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by so and so
exactly, America has a two party system. Unless you've got like 16 parties, and people have a real selection to choose from, yes, people have a vested interest in who is chosen. If people vote for you and hold your views, then they do have an interest in your party, they are members of it, even if temporarily, and they should have some say in how it's run.

I agree on that part, except that what i believe you should concentrate on is removing the two-party system rather than fixing a system that is inherently flawed.

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folder icon   04-28-2008, 06:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultra_punk
I agree on that part, except that what i believe you should concentrate on is removing the two-party system rather than fixing a system that is inherently flawed.

Well, the problem with dislodging two super-parties is that they are in a symbiotic relationship. The republican and democrat parties will kill off any upstart third parties before they can really ever reach any type of fruition. It is a protection method that both parties agree to in order to keep their existence.

And honestly, the American public is too apathetic to really start any type of realistic third party.

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folder icon   04-29-2008, 07:39 AM
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problems with tearing down the two party system:

1. it would be harder to create compromises in congress, further weakening the legislature against the executive branch.

2. Most American have a clear affiliation with one or the other party, so creating new, strong, vibrant parties is impossible.

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folder icon   04-29-2008, 11:48 AM
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Well the problems present by Crusader are of more importance than the ones you present So and So. Every single western democracy except USA runs on a multi-party system and none of us suffer problems with fighting the executive branch except for your country. Clear affiliations with any particular party is gone when you replace the two-party system. The problem isn't a two-party system, a drawn-out primary election or anything of that. I didn't say it was easy to change, but becoming more democratic never was easy. It's always an uphill battle.

The problem is that American people aren't demanding modern updated democracy for the 21st century.

-They're busy talking about whether bombing iraq is a good idea, when the rest of the world already think its a foregone conclusion that it was bad.
-They're talking about gay marriage when its such a non-issue as thousands are dying in a war.
-Americans talk about how black people are racist towards the white in the most screwed up election campaign ever.
-People are so busy trying to buy a new SUV while they're already ten thousand dollars in debt.
-You've clearly bad campaign financing laws with no spending limits.
-You've still restrictions on your civil liberties for no reason
-Your soldiers are committing war crimes and yet no one cares, even UK has already convicted two of its soldiers for war crimes. It would be magical if no american soldier can possibly be convicted for one.
-Bush didnt even win the elections he became president for. Gore won the first time and lost due to a lawsuit nullifying the vote count that had him win even though it was more accurate. The second time was mass fraud in Ohio and yet not a single investigation launched, even after over 100% voter turnout in counties that voted republican and when the engineering society IEEE saying the voting machines had zero protection against hacking.

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folder icon   04-29-2008, 01:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultra_punk
The second time was mass fraud in Ohio and yet not a single investigation launched, even after over 100% voter turnout in counties that voted republican and when the engineering society IEEE saying the voting machines had zero protection against hacking.

Actually that is debatable. They did a total independent recount of the votes in Ohio and it had Bush winning with 51% of the votes. There has been no REAL evidence that any vote tampering took place.

Bush won the second election by over 3.5 million popular votes. He won in Ohio by over 120,000 votes.

Now I'm not saying the U.S. system for elections isn't flawed, becuase it most definitely is. I'm from Northeast Ohio near Cleveland and Youngstown who have two of the most corrupt governments in the entire continental U.S. so if I know anything it is about bad politics.

Irregardless, the system will not change without major upheaval which has to be initiated by a large idealistic groupd, which will not happen in our lifetime. Foreigners to the U.S. degrading the system just causes further cleaving of the active American public (like 30%?) to the current system. The U.S. is wary of foreign powers and opinions and always have been, so the change has to come from the inside, any outside involvement will just cause further dependency on the system.

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folder icon   04-29-2008, 05:40 PM
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Yeah, like usual, any change has to happen from within and the international community can do little about it. My personal problem is just that if USA screws up, we go down with it. That's a problem to me

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folder icon   05-09-2008, 09:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by so and so
So first question. Are Hillary and Obama seriously jeopardizing the Dem presidency over this fight?

Second question. Who do you think would stand a better chance in the general election?

Third question. How should the Dem's fix their primary system so this shit doesn't happen again, or do you think it's a good thing?


I don't think the fight between Hillary and Obama is jeopardizing the Dem presidency. Although they are bloodying each other, it is balanced out by increased excitement among democratic voters and increased media attention and the opportunity to hang out dirty laundry long before the election and get everyone bored of it.

I think Obama will stand a better chance in the general election. He is a much more liked and likable candidate, despite some experience concerns. I think he will win the election while losing both Florida and Ohio.

Well... if you look at this election, there's three arguments to be made:

a) Preferences have remained remarkably steady across demographic groups, regardless of scandals and political manipulations. I don't think much has changed between Obama and Clinton since Super Tuesday in February.

b) On the other hand, spreading out primaries allows candidates to spread out use of resources. A national campaign is much more expensive than campaigning in one state at a time, generally.

c) Before the first few races, not enough people knew Obama and there were too many candidates in the running.

I would suggest having 4 states, more or less, have very early elections, then having about 6 states a week for 8 weeks, to get it over relatively quickly while allowing candidates to campaign in a reasonably sized set of states at a time.
Quote:
We talked about this in my government class (well, I didn't talk, I watched the class at home on TV): If the Democrats used the system of selecting candidates that the Republicans use, I think Clinto would have been selected by now (I don't remember precisely which one, but at this point the Democrats would have a candidate). Interestlingly, if the Republicans used the Democrats' system, Mitt Romney would still be in the race.

That's incorrect by my count. A winner-take all system (which is what the Republicans mostly use) rather than an adjusted proportional system would make this race much closer than it is today and Clinton would probably be the ultimate winner, if all delegates from each state were assigned in such a manner. Obama would currently have 1861 delegates to Clinton's 1908 (Florida and Michigan excluded, 2025 delegates to win). If Florida and Michigan were given half votes and winner-take-all were used, as the Republican party did, Clinton would almost be the winner with 2092 delegates (of 2117 required). With West Virginia, she would win.

Of course, not all Republican primaries are winner-take-all. But Clinton gets an edge in the winner-take-all system because she won the majority of the vote in several large states such a Texas (split-decision because Obama won the caucuses, but I just counted the popular vote), New York, and California.

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folder icon   10-05-2008, 03:53 AM
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folder icon   10-05-2008, 04:46 AM
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Joined: Jul 16 2001
Location: At Home
Posts: 6,109 pospos

Excuse me Gino999, but the balls go in the ass and the dick in the pussy. Thank you for your cooperation.

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