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Doomsday Alert #3  
folder icon   09-10-2009, 07:09 PM
Doomsday Alert #3 Post #1
VeeGee

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Okay, so yeah, I enjoy getting myself histeric every now and then everytime there is a a vibe in the air of war. War...

Israel is going to bomb Iran. Is there any doubt in the matter? They're smart, these Iranians. They are experts at mind games, and they managed to construct a whole array of nuclear reactors, and they can enrich uranium quickly enough to produce a bomb. The all mighty WPD America has been so concered about, and all this happened under the "tight scrutiny" of SABAA, UN, EU, US, Sunni Muslim Countries Intelligence and Israeli Intelligence. I mean, who the fuck are we kidding? Iran is willing to subject itself to sanctions and restrictions and threats of invasion just to prove a point? to prove their given right? They put half the world in panic and half the world in cheer just because they enjoy their 15 minutes?

meh.

They've learned this from Israel. This deciet. We have nukes, we made them, they're hiding inside some mountain or under some base. But formally our reactors "peace purposes and research only" too. Formally, we never made nukes. Formally, we're not signed on the non proliferation treaty as well. Just sounds too damn familiar.

Israel is going to bomb Iran. When do you think it'll happen? What do you think will happen?

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folder icon   09-10-2009, 10:10 PM
Post #2
Ultra_punk

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There's a chance, and a good one at that, if the Americans can convince the hardline Israeli government that the US will take care of the problem then they won't bomb Iran. Afterall, Americans convinced the Israeli government not to retaliate against Iraq during the Persian Gulf War.

Iran knows it can wade through any amount of sanctions and political bluster sent in their direction because everything that Ahmadinejad is saying is pure just cause to the Iranians. The West is unable to paradoxically deny them nuclear technology when we're the ones with the most nukes in the first place, a clearly non-civilian use of the technology. Asking Iran to burn away their oil supplies for energy would be simliar to asking North America to poison our water supplies with industrial waste just to satisfy the Chinese pollution issue.

What would happen? I'm not too sure about that. No one in the middle east is really in a position to wage war against Israel, not like before in any case. Although for Iran, it's a win win situation. If Israel attacks Iran, and Iran either does not respond with military or is unable to respond, the world will be in Iran's favour. Ahmadinejad will secure his position since the election fraud issues due to the threat of foreign invasion. The west lets off pressure on the nuclear programme. Israel loses allies, although the US will likely continue to support them financially.

As everybody already hates Israel, Israel itself probably doesn't give a shit. US simply always supports the country with billions of dollars every year no matter the circumstances. The politics of nothing to lose.

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folder icon   09-11-2009, 08:48 PM
Post #3
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Well, there is another view out there...


Almost all the major western intelligence services have an estimation, that if the Iranian leadership would have decided to go with the fast and direct route towards the bomb, it would have been able to conduct an nuclear experiment at the beginning of 2010.

But the international pressure and military-technical considerations have brought the ayetollahs, about a year ago, to adopt a more sophisticated-but slower strategy; The two phase strategy: In the current, first phase, they amount a large quantity of Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) - 3.5/4%, and concurrently construct a large array of thousands of modern centrifuges, that can enrich large amounts of uranium at once.

At this stage Iran does not violate, supposedly, the conditions of the Non-Prolifeterian treaty. LEU uses as fuel in reactors to produce electricity and cannot be made into a nuke, without being highly-enriched. So, the IAEA, whose inspectors see the accumilation of LEU, and cannot report that Teheran is striving towards a nuke. They can, at most, say they suspect, but with no proof. This gives Russia and China an excellent excuse to prevent sanctions being put on Iran.

The second stage at the Iranian nuclear program is the critical one. In this stage the Iranians will take the large quantity of LEU, and will feed it to their centrifuge array the constructed at phase one. In several months they'll enough Highly-Enriched Uranium (HEU), about %90, which suffices for at least four nuclear heads of 20-40 kiloton force -- two for testing and two for operational use.

The weapon itself, meaning the bomb or nuclear warhead that is ready to mount a missile, Iran can already produce today; By plans sold to her by the Pakistani nuclear chief scientist, Abed Al Khaid Khan, and maybe even by plans made in North Korea.

At this stage Iran would no longer be able to hide, and maybe no longer interesting in hiding, that it produces nuclear weapons. The warheads they can hastly manufacture will serve Iran not only in showing its might, but also enforce its hagmony over the Middle East and provide shelter to terrorist organizations working under their sponsorship, and finally to deter nations of the world, especially Western, Europeans, and Asian, from sanctioning them.

This is the scenario that will likely happen if the diplomatic "dialouge" the American goverment hopes to commence with the Iranian regime goes through. Even so, the assumption in Israel and the United States that if the dialouge fails, it would be possible to stop the Iran race for the bomb with posing some heavy economical limitations.

The only sanction that truly trembles Iranians right now is an embargo of importing Oil Refines. Iran, one of the worldst largest crude oil exporters, importings today more than 40% of fuel consumption needs, oil lubricants, and raw materials for its industries. Strange historical circumestances lead to this bizzar situation, but this fact makes IRan vulnerable today for this kind of sanction. This, despite an unlikely assumption that Russia and China would collaborate with such a move by Western countries, and agree to cast the sanction.


However in a few years the situation will become different. Not only because Iran could threat to wage war that includes the use of its nuclear arsenal, on whoever enforces an embargo on her. This is aslo because the leadership in Teheran is making giant leaps to quickly build an industry of oil refinement in its land, and invests billions of dollars in parallery constructiing a number of petrochemical complexes. This is why the "window of opportunity" to effectively sanction Iran is time limited.

This is another reason why the Iranian leadership takes the phase tactics, which enables it to draw time. But not all is lost, because in the next two-three years, or by 2014 (by private Mossad assumptions), that it would take Iran to complete the current phase of its nuclear program, there could be internal political developments.

The uprising opressed in the previous months has not completely dwindled and it may, in the long run, bring a change of regime in Iran, or at least force the current one to soften its approach towards global demands. In both cases there is a good chance the Iranian military nuclear program would be put on hold, or even be cancelled altogether. A good analog to this was given by Prof. David Mansheri, head of Iranian studies in TLAU, who wrote in an article: "Two trains left the terminal in Iran. One carrying the manifest of socio-political change, the other the manifest of the nuke". The fatal quetion is which train will arrive at the final destination first.

---

Article was translated from ynet.co.il, written by Ron Ben Yishai

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folder icon   09-25-2009, 12:14 PM
Post #4
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Well, looking at Obama's speech today in the UN assembly, I think the war is imminent.

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folder icon   09-25-2009, 08:28 PM
Post #5
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How so? Sanctions hardly seem like a prelude to war. That's usually a prelude to angry stares.

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folder icon   09-26-2009, 03:55 AM
Post #6
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Sanctions will hardly stop Iran from building the bomb. If anything, sanctions will confirm that Iran is indeed using nuclear energy for wrong reasons. I don't think that Israel will wait too long before attacking.

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folder icon   09-26-2009, 04:00 PM
Post #7
Ultra_punk

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Oh, I thought you meant that the USA was going to attack Iran, which would be ridiculous. If you're talking about Israel, they are going to bomb Iran irrespective of anything that happens in the next few years, unless Iran bombs itself.

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folder icon   09-26-2009, 04:35 PM
Post #8
ěl.

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I don't usually come in here, but I'd just like to say that the UK government, when building up their nuclear project, couldn't do it with one big reactor or such as everyone would get upset, so they set up many small reactors for "peaceful purposes" and then had them running for years.

You can restrict the Iranian government to only so much enrichment, but if they keep it up for years then in the end it has the same effect.

Veegee, do you think, if there is an attack, it'll be similar to the ones to the Iraqi and Syrian nuclear projects or do you think it'll be a little more intense than that?

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folder icon   09-27-2009, 12:10 AM
Post #9
Ultra_punk

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Except, under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, UK is allowed to have nuclear weapons. They only broke up the program to be over a longer period of time due to domestic opposition to it. Domestic opposition is the same reason Canada dismantled its nuclear weapons program.

In the global political situation, such as it is, Iran faces several problems:

a) It's now moving into the 21st century with new technology and with that means a large energy demand. They can solve this through the existing technologies:

Coal: a highly inefficient source of energy and I'm not sure if Iran has extensive coal reserves

Oil/Gas: For Iran, this is a strategic mistake, especially over the long term, to burn their oil for energy. They need it for export to fuel their economy and ensure bargaining power in the world. That's ignoring the fact that burning oil for energy is one of the stupidest inventions of man.

Wind/Solar: This could maybe account for 10-15% of their energy needs immediately. Renewables are okay, but incredibly expensive, technologically intensive and would take a lot of time and money for very little gain.

Nuclear: A relatively cheap and easy option to provide electricity.

From an engineering standpoint, nuclear energy is their best option. Then while switching to nuclear, they can build up renewable energy over the next 50 years.

b) US and Israel constantly threatening war with Iran. Remember, Persia hasn't fought an offensive war for quite some time now. Nuclear weapons would be a pretty good deterrent from the West trying to invade it yet again.

As far as WMDs go, I think Iran probably has quite a negative view of them, ever since US provided chemical and biological weapons to Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war. As well, it would seem the public is highly against having nuclear weapons. Taking these into account, threatening war with Iran probably increases the likelihood that they develop nuclear weapons in the short term to defend themselves. A self-fulfilling prophecy if you will.

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folder icon   09-27-2009, 09:31 PM
Post #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultra_punk
threatening war with Iran probably increases the likelihood that they develop nuclear weapons in the short term to defend themselves. A self-fulfilling prophecy if you will.

Wether the world is pushing Iran into the development of a nuke, or it was their intention since the start, is something we would probably never know. In the short-term, I don't think this is a chance Israel is willing to take. When the country's leader talks about eradicating Israel meanwhile jumping enormous leaps towards a nuclear program that might or might not provide a nuclear arsenal... hmm.

In Hebrew there's a saying: "The one who wakes to kill you, wake earlier to kill him". Can you be certain they're not going to build a nuke and threaten us with it? I'm guessing it's kind of a greyzone, with only Iran and Israel seeing black and white.

Ol - the attack would be nothing like the skirmishes into Iraq and Syria. We have complete air dominance over these countries. I think we even fiddled with Syria's radar systems as the strike went along, but you only get these from semi-trustworthy external news sources, since Israel is keeping a tight lid on the issue.

Iran started building their nuclear program knowing they'll be threatened. They've bunkered a lot of the facilities deep underground, and also scattered them all over the country. Plus, they put an extra emphasis on anti-aircraft systems, and their army is preparing for an aerial invasion.

Even some optimisits within Israel are skeptic about our capabilities in completely damaging most of facilities with one swift strike. We've never flew this far before to attack multiple targets at a country that's constantly looking to the sky, to see when we're coming. It's gunna be tough...

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folder icon   09-28-2009, 12:34 AM
Post #11
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On that note, considering Iran's relatively stable government and standing army, wouldn't they have lots of radar installations set up and combat air patrols? I'm not familiar with their capabilities but it seems like Israel would have to conduct a continued air strike on Iran over several weeks. Something I'm not entirely sure you have the political will to do so.

Even so, even a limited strike that damages some of their facilities would set them back years. Nuclear capability is expensive, slow and requires a lot of infrastructure.

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folder icon   09-30-2009, 07:34 AM
Post #12
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To the best of my knowledge Russia was about to sell some sophisticated anti-aircraft systems to Iran, but the deal was cancelled the last moment, to the relief of our anxious government. The missiles they could've purchased would've seriously hurt the chances of a successful air raid. Israeli technology currently supercedes that of Iran, especially in the division of electronic aerial warfare. Scramballing radars and radio frequencies is something we like. We also have a (unconfirmed) few stealth bombers that are packed with pretty big bombs. We are also utilising unmanned aircrafts for all sorts of missions, which I'm sure would definetly be used in such an attack.

The only drawback with an attack, if its successful, is that it will only set back Iran and not halt their development entirely. Well that and the lose of lives, both sides.

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