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folder icon   07-12-2006, 02:03 PM
Another Middle Eastern War? Post #1
VeeGee

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It seems some orders are going to change during the next couple of months throughout the Middle East.

The situation between Israel and Palestine, is not worth debating, since it would be like grinding water at the moment. However, as retaliation to the current military operations Israel is conducting in Gaza, no other than Lebanon's Hizzbolah decided to attack Israel with rockets, kill 7 soldiers, and kidnapp 3. Thus violating the "treaty" we had.

Lebanon is a militaristic terror orginization that operates in the southern regions of Lebanon. It is not a formal branch of the government, but they hold control pretty much anywhere they're located. They operate at their own discretion without official Lebanese restraint or intervention and as such Lebanon is held liable for the recent attacks. This can quickly escalate into another war fought with Lebanon, and as a result, it could involve Syria as well, and finally Iran.

I am speaking of a speedy unfolding of events. There is also a worst case scenario. World War III. With the developing scenario in North Korea as well, and the Western World's demand of NK and Iran to stop all and any nuclear activity, this whole thing could ignite the entire Muslim world into a state of desired conflict.
I know NK are not Muslim, but they hold ties with the Muslim world and Japan real recently declared that attacking NK would be "an act of self defense".

Why is that?
If Israel does extensively attack Lebanon (keywords being if and extensively), Syria and Iran are likely to actively and formally retaliate against Israel, resulting in a counterattack by Israel. If Syria and Iran are attacked by Israel, this is going to be a megawar.

What do you think about that?

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folder icon   07-12-2006, 05:28 PM
Post #2
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Quote:
Lebanon is a militaristic terror orginization that operates in the southern regions of Lebanon.

Make it Hizzbolah.
Quote:
What do you think about that?

Me no likey.

Though seriously, a full scale war between islamic countries and Isral would not only harm Isral and said islamic countries, but also 'peace processes' in Afghanistan and Iraq, as the USA will get involved because Iran and Syria together will probably be able to defeat Isral, then the Iraqi and Afghani population will get angry and start kicking western forces out etc etc etc. Where will it end? :-/

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folder icon   07-13-2006, 12:49 AM
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I seriously doubt Iran and Syria could defeat Israel even if they had double the forces they do now. Syria's army is built to control the country and maintain security to prevent coups, it doesn't have much attacking capability. Any attack Iran makes has to go over, around, or through Iraq, and the U.S. will not allow any of those. That, and Israel has one of the best armies in the world.

This escalation wouldn't be too shocking if not for the fact that the U.S. is now in the region. If the conflict became too much for Israel to safely handle alone(and I doubt that'll happen), the U.S. is pretty much obligated to help out, most likely with precision airstrikes. Much like Iraq, the U.S. could decimate much of the forces of any given country in the region within a few weeks.

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folder icon   07-13-2006, 04:25 AM
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I doubt that'd make things better.

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folder icon   07-13-2006, 09:19 AM
Post #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaggin
I seriously doubt Iran and Syria could defeat Israel even if they had double the forces they do now. Syria's army is built to control the country and maintain security to prevent coups, it doesn't have much attacking capability. Any attack Iran makes has to go over, around, or through Iraq, and the U.S. will not allow any of those. That, and Israel has one of the best armies in the world.

This escalation wouldn't be too shocking if not for the fact that the U.S. is now in the region. If the conflict became too much for Israel to safely handle alone(and I doubt that'll happen), the U.S. is pretty much obligated to help out, most likely with precision airstrikes. Much like Iraq, the U.S. could decimate much of the forces of any given country in the region within a few weeks.


Probably, but its going to make the situation in Middle East much worse. USA can't win a ground war against the other countries, but the USAF has virtually no opposition in the area.

Israeli airforce just bombed the Beirut airport. So that's definitely an escalation, i havent heard what the Lebanon response is so far.

Japan can't start a war yet, they just want to use North Korea as its reason for an offensive military. It'll take them a few years to build that kind of weaponry at least (unless all that anime of mecha was for real!).

I'm also unsure of how this would start world war 3, as it doesnt involve any major powers. Overall, sorry to say, nobody wants to get directly involved with Israel aside from mediating peace negotiations. USA may give lots of weapons to Israel but it'll be hard pressed to actualy deploy troops in its defence. I dont ever remember american lives being used to defend the country.

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folder icon   07-13-2006, 02:08 PM
Post #6
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During both Gulf Wars, American troops that operate Patriot missile arrays were deployed throughout Israel, in case Iraq decides to send Scuds over.

How it would start World War 3?
If Iran gets involved in this, the USA gets involved in this, and as such, it's probable that the terror organizations would press to deliver more bomb attacks throughout Europe. I know there's no reason in this, but there was never reason in this. USA and Israel won't stand against Iran by themselves.

The entire Western world is terrified of Iranian nuclear capabilities, and Europe is scared about the shift of powers and the Muslim rise. They are dancing in both weddings, letting the USA doing all the dirty work and condemning the actions, while doing nothing to prevent them, and even minimaly assiting the US (e.g. Iraq).

A rocket landed on Haifa, one of the 3 major cities of Israel. This was a warning rocket, but it's know that there are dozens more that can land there.

Anyway, of course I said it's worst case scenario. Syria and Iran may also decide to not get involved, and let Lebanon face this situation by themselves.

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folder icon   07-13-2006, 04:48 PM
Post #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VeeGee
During both Gulf Wars, American troops that operate Patriot missile arrays were deployed throughout Israel, in case Iraq decides to send Scuds over.

How it would start World War 3?
If Iran gets involved in this, the USA gets involved in this, and as such, it's probable that the terror organizations would press to deliver more bomb attacks throughout Europe. I know there's no reason in this, but there was never reason in this. USA and Israel won't stand against Iran by themselves.

The entire Western world is terrified of Iranian nuclear capabilities, and Europe is scared about the shift of powers and the Muslim rise. They are dancing in both weddings, letting the USA doing all the dirty work and condemning the actions, while doing nothing to prevent them, and even minimaly assiting the US (e.g. Iraq).

A rocket landed on Haifa, one of the 3 major cities of Israel. This was a warning rocket, but it's know that there are dozens more that can land there.

Anyway, of course I said it's worst case scenario. Syria and Iran may also decide to not get involved, and let Lebanon face this situation by themselves.


Iran will condemn israel's actions but i dont think they'll do much more than supply weapons, like usa. I think thats a probable scenario.

Hmm... Israeli airforce has killed 47 people in Lebanon now. Im not sure exactly how lebanon is going to react. Somethign like 60 hezbollah rockets in return fire, killing one guy. This is pretty bad...

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folder icon   07-14-2006, 03:58 AM
Post #8
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I hope so, I hope it doesn't escalate into anything massive.

Hezbollah provoked Israel, and they hide their ammunition inside condensed civillian areas, to prevent Israel from attack their arsenals. The world's condenmtion of Israeli retaliation is unjustified, and I may be biased, but when they fly rockets on our cities, we can't just stand back and say 'oh, we'll sit tight and take the hits because we can harm someone'. This is a Hezbollah initiated battle, and hey, they must face the consenquences.

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folder icon   07-14-2006, 04:56 AM
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[QUOTE=VeeGee]

The entire Western world is terrified of Iranian nuclear capabilities, and Europe is scared about the shift of powers and the Muslim rise. They are dancing in both weddings, letting the USA doing all the dirty work and condemning the actions, while doing nothing to prevent them, and even minimaly assiting the US (e.g. Iraq).

QUOTE]

*HUG!*

and

[QUOTE=VeeGee]

Hezbollah provoked Israel, and they hide their ammunition inside condensed civillian areas, to prevent Israel from attack their arsenals. The world's condenmtion of Israeli retaliation is unjustified, and I may be biased, but when they fly rockets on our cities, we can't just stand back and say 'oh, we'll sit tight and take the hits because we can harm someone'. This is a Hezbollah initiated battle, and hey, they must face the consenquences.
[QUOTE]

*HUG!* this is my view too. Europe is really lame.

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folder icon   07-14-2006, 04:59 PM
Post #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VeeGee
I hope so, I hope it doesn't escalate into anything massive.

Hezbollah provoked Israel, and they hide their ammunition inside condensed civillian areas, to prevent Israel from attack their arsenals. The world's condenmtion of Israeli retaliation is unjustified, and I may be biased, but when they fly rockets on our cities, we can't just stand back and say 'oh, we'll sit tight and take the hits because we can harm someone'. This is a Hezbollah initiated battle, and hey, they must face the consenquences.


People call it an overaction on Israel's part, but they're looking at it very narrowly as this: 2 soldiers are kidnapped and Israel bombs Beirut. What they're not taking into consideration are the rockets fired from both Hezbolah(sp?) and Hamas, the escalation of violence in recent months, the continued demand for the destruction of Israel despited its withdrawal from Gaza, Iran's threats to kill all the Jews, Syria's looming aggression and harboring of terrorists, Lebanon's weak control over its own country and... did I forget anything... oh ya, 60 YEARS OF ATTEMPTS TO EXTERMINATE ISRAEL BY ALL OF ITS NEIGHBORS. However, I do hope there's not much more to this situation, another war could drive oil prices way up and cause much political upheavel, not to mention the lives of many people.

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folder icon   07-15-2006, 07:05 AM
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Egypt's role could be pivotal in this conflict... they've been of fairly good terms as far as things go with Israel for a while, I think their stance on this could determine a lot on whether this escalates into a full scale war or not.

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folder icon   07-15-2006, 12:25 PM
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I think we should send in UN peacekeepers. Israel was the first place peacekeepers were deployed, I'd like someone at the UN to propose peacekeepers to resolve the situation. I dont want to see any more israeli or lebanese dead.

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folder icon   07-15-2006, 08:28 PM
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U.N. peacekeepers might help, but I dont' think they'll opt to send them in. The U.N. never sends the peacekeepers into a conflict directly like that, and they've never sent in peacekeepers to such an organized terrorist group like Hezbolah before. Hezbolah has supposedly 10,000 rockets, and they've launched only a 100 so far. The rockets aren't accurate, so they're basically used to kill civilians. Plus they have suicide bombers, which they haven't used yet. That's a heavy force to put U.N. soldiers up against. Israel won't attack U.N. troops, but Hezbolah might, and that would put the U.N. against Hezbolah, which in the Arab world may translate to the West against the Muslims.

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folder icon   07-15-2006, 11:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaggin
U.N. peacekeepers might help, but I dont' think they'll opt to send them in. The U.N. never sends the peacekeepers into a conflict directly like that, and they've never sent in peacekeepers to such an organized terrorist group like Hezbolah before. Hezbolah has supposedly 10,000 rockets, and they've launched only a 100 so far. The rockets aren't accurate, so they're basically used to kill civilians. Plus they have suicide bombers, which they haven't used yet. That's a heavy force to put U.N. soldiers up against. Israel won't attack U.N. troops, but Hezbolah might, and that would put the U.N. against Hezbolah, which in the Arab world may translate to the West against the Muslims.

Well Hezbollah isnt attacking the UN peacekeepers that are there right now, i dont think they'll attack if theres a lot more. They might, but nobody ever said peacekeeping was supposed to be safe. Also it all depends on how many countries we can get to commit peacekeepers. If Egypt and Canada were able to commit forces to the peacekeeping process it woudl make it highly legitamite to both sides.

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folder icon   07-15-2006, 11:28 PM
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One would hope they wouldn't. I'm just afraid that the U.N. might be reluctant to send the forces necessary. If they're serious about this, they would need some 10s of thousands of troops with heavy mobility and recon equipment. That's a tall order for an organization that's used to sending a few thousand here, a few thousand there. And there's nothing to stop Hezbolah from firing rockets over them right into Israel.

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folder icon   07-16-2006, 05:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultra_punk
Well Hezbollah isnt attacking the UN peacekeepers that are there right now, i dont think they'll attack if theres a lot more. They might, but nobody ever said peacekeeping was supposed to be safe. Also it all depends on how many countries we can get to commit peacekeepers. If Egypt and Canada were able to commit forces to the peacekeeping process it woudl make it highly legitamite to both sides.
Peacekeepers can only be sent to an area if both conflicting parties agree to it. They are also fairly useless in stalling a conflict; their true purpose lies in being there as the aloft international presence between two parties, to watch. Not fight.

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folder icon   07-16-2006, 09:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by K0d0
Peacekeepers can only be sent to an area if both conflicting parties agree to it. They are also fairly useless in stalling a conflict; their true purpose lies in being there as the aloft international presence between two parties, to watch. Not fight.

No, you guys forget the first time peacekeepers were deployed. It was against the wishes of the veto powers Britain and France, and certainly not because Israel wanted them there. Canada deployed thousands of soldiers to block the Israel invasion of Egypt. It was far from "useless in stalling a conflict" it utterly ended the war. Whats the point of some international soldiers being there to watch? That's just stupid if you think thats what they're supposed to do and thats why they fail at what they do because you think they shouldnt be doing anything. Canada had peacekeepers in Rwanda but when everyone else pulled out and we only had 400 guys to patrol a country of millions, gee what happened when we didnt deploy peacekeepers?

I am more concerned about the UN not giving a shit than peacekeeper's not being for stopping wars. (like gaggin) Peacekeepers arent to just sit and watch and do nothing, they're the implementation of the idea that you can use a military to stop a war instead of starting a war.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gaggin
One would hope they wouldn't. I'm just afraid that the U.N. might be reluctant to send the forces necessary. If they're serious about this, they would need some 10s of thousands of troops with heavy mobility and recon equipment. That's a tall order for an organization that's used to sending a few thousand here, a few thousand there. And there's nothing to stop Hezbolah from firing rockets over them right into Israel.

Ten thousand troops sounds about right and yeah it probably can't completely stop rocket attacks, its terrorists afterall and not a Lebanese army. However, in this case, i feel the expediture on military assets in the area which would reduce rocket attacks and israeli air strikes, meaning less deaths, would be better than full blown warfare.

I mean Bush can use 6000 troops to stop illegal immigrants in a pointless burning pyre of money ceremony, or he can ask UN to deploy peacekeepers in the area and spend the money there to save... 100 lives? 200 lives? Instead, he'll just talk about Israel's right to self defence and let people die. Seems our useless Prime Minister is doing the same dumbass thing, what fools voted that jackass in.

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folder icon   07-16-2006, 12:46 PM
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VeeGee, where are you right now? Are you in any danger?

Everytime I see this on the news I think of how it all could've been avoided if things had worked out earlier with Sharon and Arafat, during the Clinton Admin.

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folder icon   07-16-2006, 08:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by so and so
VeeGee, where are you right now? Are you in any danger?

Everytime I see this on the news I think of how it all could've been avoided if things had worked out earlier with Sharon and Arafat, during the Clinton Admin.



Hell, even if Sharon hadn't been incapacitated in January, things might have been better now. It's really unfortunate.

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folder icon   07-17-2006, 12:59 AM
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http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/natio...-canadians.html

Seven Canadians from Montreal were just killed by Israeli bombing runs. I think this is getting way too far fetched.

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folder icon   07-17-2006, 05:39 PM
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That's just stupid if you think thats what they're supposed to do and thats why they fail at what they do because you think they shouldnt be doing anything. Canada had peacekeepers in Rwanda but when everyone else pulled out and we only had 400 guys to patrol a country of millions, gee what happened when we didnt deploy peacekeepers?


I think we are having a misunderstanding of terms here . Peacekeeping is the passive monitoring of parties' withdrawal, handing in of guns, dispensing supplies and humanitarian aid and so on. They are simply meant to maintain peace once it has been reached. This was what happened in the war in Lebanon and Israel agreed to give over control to UNIFIL (i think) and eventually to some pro-Israeli faction.
What you are thinking of is peace enforcement. This has not happened in Lebanon. Peace enforcement examples are ones such as the Balkans and Somalia.

Also, i think you are underestimating the extreme complications peace enforcement carries with itself.
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Originally Posted by Ultra_punk
No, you guys forget the first time peacekeepers were deployed. It was against the wishes of the veto powers Britain and France, and certainly not because Israel wanted them there. Canada deployed thousands of soldiers to block the Israel invasion of Egypt. It was far from "useless in stalling a conflict" it utterly ended the war. Whats the point of some international soldiers being there to watch?
I might have been a little harsh. Israel caved in to the UN, after the Security Council had passed a couple of resolutions. International pressure forced them to accept, but the troops moved in after Israel had accepted the SC's orders.
The military presence of a peacekeeping operation is at heart not supposed to act in any other way than i described above. However, this presence can serve as a reminder of the international presence, that "Big Brother" is watching you and make the general violence wackos think twice before they blow something up. The only violence they are allowed to perform is self-defense.

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folder icon   07-18-2006, 02:10 AM
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Originally Posted by K0d0
I think we are having a misunderstanding of terms here . Peacekeeping is the passive monitoring of parties' withdrawal, handing in of guns, dispensing supplies and humanitarian aid and so on. They are simply meant to maintain peace once it has been reached. This was what happened in the war in Lebanon and Israel agreed to give over control to UNIFIL (i think) and eventually to some pro-Israeli faction.
What you are thinking of is peace enforcement. This has not happened in Lebanon. Peace enforcement examples are ones such as the Balkans and Somalia.

Also, i think you are underestimating the extreme complications peace enforcement carries with itself.


I might have been a little harsh. Israel caved in to the UN, after the Security Council had passed a couple of resolutions. International pressure forced them to accept, but the troops moved in after Israel had accepted the SC's orders.
The military presence of a peacekeeping operation is at heart not supposed to act in any other way than i described above. However, this presence can serve as a reminder of the international presence, that "Big Brother" is watching you and make the general violence wackos think twice before they blow something up. The only violence they are allowed to perform is self-defense.



Mmm... well, alright, but if the Security Council votes to put in peacekeepers, wouldnt any country cave in? I mean, nobody can say no and attack the peacekeepers, right?

The whole threat of the UN peacekeeper's capability for self-defence is really the idea behind not being able to attack them.

Anyway, first time peacekeepers were deployed, the Security Council vetoed the idea It was the General Assembly that voted yes to it.

I'm not exactly trying to disprove anything you are saying. I'm just pointing out the fact that we have the concept of peacekeepers and yet we never use them for their purpose.

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folder icon   07-18-2006, 08:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultra_punk

I'm not exactly trying to disprove anything you are saying. I'm just pointing out the fact that we have the concept of peacekeepers and yet we never use them for their purpose.

Yeah, i agree.

But i do want to stress the fact that peacekeepers are right now deployed in more than a dozen situations around the world, making the transition from war to peace a little more official and international.

Just came to think of another thing. An outside party ending a war through violence is pretty much the hardest thing to do, ever. The only options i see for the international community is to put extreme diplomatic and economic pressure on both sides of the conflict. Alas, how easy is that really? Its not like the international community is a united group.

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folder icon   07-19-2006, 03:27 PM
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Unfortunately it's not a two-sided issue. There are many sides to it. I think a big step would be for Lebanon to assert itself and disarm Hezbolah, but it's hard to go against nearly a quarter of your population when there's not much control over them. The thing is, the U.S. could tell Israel to stop and they probably would, but no one but Syria or Iran can tell Hezbolah to stop, and they of course won't. Before U.N. troops can go in there needs to be a ceasefire agreement. Even then it may be rough, terrorist groups are extremely hard to deal with militarily. You can't just send in troops to stop them, you have to actively campaign against them or they'll continue to operate. That is why Israel is so aggressive, they know that pressure is key to minimizing their losses.


BTW, peacekeeper were sent into the Sinai only after Israel withdrew, and the only reason why Britain and France protested was because they were part of the invasion of Egypt. The peacekeepers didn't end the war, U.S. pressure on Britain did. Peacekeepers just act as a safeguard to prevent further conflict.

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folder icon   07-19-2006, 04:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaggin
Unfortunately it's not a two-sided issue. There are many sides to it. I think a big step would be for Lebanon to assert itself and disarm Hezbolah, but it's hard to go against nearly a quarter of your population when there's not much control over them. The thing is, the U.S. could tell Israel to stop and they probably would, but no one but Syria or Iran can tell Hezbolah to stop, and they of course won't. Before U.N. troops can go in there needs to be a ceasefire agreement. Even then it may be rough, terrorist groups are extremely hard to deal with militarily. You can't just send in troops to stop them, you have to actively campaign against them or they'll continue to operate. That is why Israel is so aggressive, they know that pressure is key to minimizing their losses.


BTW, peacekeeper were sent into the Sinai only after Israel withdrew, and the only reason why Britain and France protested was because they were part of the invasion of Egypt. The peacekeepers didn't end the war, U.S. pressure on Britain did. Peacekeepers just act as a safeguard to prevent further conflict.


Um, yes you can spin USA as the hero, but 90% of the world was putting pressure against Britain, France and Israel. They had to back down especially since they couldnt fire on Canadian peacekeepers. The peace treaty was more or less forced upon them. Remember, Britain used its veto power to block your bills in the Security Council.

Now, you cant really force a peace treaty on terrorists, but i think we all know this "pressure" only creates more terrorists. How much more support do you think they'll gain now that therea re 300 lebanese indiscriminately killed in israeli bombings? The dead arent hezbollah, they're just civilians, and only a small fraction are militants. Heck, 8 of the dead are canadians.

An international force has more chance to broker a peace agreement than does anythign else. Do you think Israeli air strikes will bring peace?

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folder icon   07-19-2006, 09:49 PM
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There's no spin about it. The U.S. stop all oil trade from the Americas to Britain, and the Israelis were forced to withdraw. THEN the peacekeepers came in. The U.S. feared a larger war and acted to prevent more tension with the Soviets. The Canadian peacekeepers had nothing to do with Israel backing down.


Israel has no choice. They can't worry about creating more terrorists, they've been at war with terrorists from the very beginning. They haven't survived for this long by saying "Oh, we can't do that, it'll piss off the Arabs!" Hezbolah attacked Israel unprovoked, and now the Lebanese will feel the reprecussions of allowing Hezbolah to fester. I totally understand Israel's motives here, they've been a nation constantly at war for over 50 years. You can tell them to stop hostilities, but everytime they stop they get attacked, and then they have to ask themselves whether those attacks could've been prevented. Their airstrikes are precision bombings, not some random scud attack. You can't be outraged at how many Canadians or Americans or French die in the crossfire, it's bound to happen in a warzone, and it's nothing worse than what the Israelis face everyday. If you're going to live in the Middle East, you've gotta expect to be shot at. In the long haul, Hezbolah stands to lose alot from this war.

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folder icon   07-20-2006, 11:44 AM
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It seems to me all these groups have much to lose and nothing to gain. Why did this escalate into war again?

I really get the feeling from watching this that no one there really cares about peace - that little scraps of desert are more important to them than the lives of their own family members.

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folder icon   07-21-2006, 01:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by so and so
It seems to me all these groups have much to lose and nothing to gain. Why did this escalate into war again?

I really get the feeling from watching this that no one there really cares about peace - that little scraps of desert are more important to them than the lives of their own family members.


Yes, because Fox News or CNN or whatever it is that you're watching tells you exactly how it is living here.

Why did this escalate into war again? Let me ask you a question, and I want a straight contemplated answer for it --
If the USA now gets attacked by Cuba, unprovoked and for no justified reason, with a few hundred missiles, how would you expect your country to react? Even the missiles kill nobody.

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folder icon   07-21-2006, 10:08 AM
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We bomb the fuck out of them of course. Regime change would be on the menu I'm sure. Of course, the missiles would probably hit Florida, and with any luck hit old people, so really it wouldn't be a big loss, but retaliation still would be necessary.

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folder icon   07-21-2006, 11:37 AM
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After 9/11, USA went to war with Afghanistan. At the time, the Taliban were clear supporters, or Bin laden was a clear supporter of the Taliban. USA got NATO to go over there, although only USA and Britain were willing to bomb the country from the air. The rest of us sent ground troops.

The air strikes were fairly heavily criticized in Canada (i dont know about anywhere else) because of their indiscriminate killing nature. USA had the usual excuses, "there was terriristz in da village!". However, nobody has complained about ISAF's indiscriminate nature because they arent. Ground infantry is about the only thing that can go around and have a very high chance of not killing the wrong guy. Air strikes are bad and only serve to anger the local people. American air strikes are so bad they killed canadian and british troops. Canada has not had a single friendly fire incident and i dont think i heard anything about a british one (but if there was im sure its minor). People do complain about American soldiers on the ground roughing them up, so thats the problem with sending in soldiers.

I dont think it was right to invade afghanistan, after the fact, we should have just moved in to take out bin laden. Israel going to make the same mistake?

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folder icon   07-21-2006, 06:39 PM
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U.S. airstrikes have very low collateral damage rates. Better than any other airforce in the world in fact. Considering the amount of bombs that are dropped, it's quite that painful efforts have been taken to keep civilian casualties as low as possible. Yes, one guy did disobey orders and killed 17 Canadians, and we all know you love to use that one incident to say the U.S. military is trigger-happy, but the fact is we're fighting guerrilla wars in 2 countries with an enemy that doesn't wear uniforms and hides in the populace.

The ISAF doesn't exactly play a very big role in the actual war, and Canada's contribution is quite small. Only about 900 of the 8000 ISAF forces are Canadian, and Canada's role is almost entirely surveillence and logistic support. Saying Canada has no friendly fire incidents is like saying Costa Rica and Iceland have no friendly fire incidents. Interesting fact, but largely pointless since they're not involved in any wars(or even have militaries for that matter).

After awhile civilians begin to resent any foreign troop presence. Lucky for Israel the people in Southern Lebanon already hate them for the most part, so that won't be a problem. The problem with Israel sending in ground forces is two-fold:

1. They've already been there. They went in to take care of Palestinians and unintentionally got stuck there for about 18 years.They gain nothing from a 2nd occupation, and any backing down on their part is seen as a great victory to the terrorists that will further their cause.

2. Hezbolah has spent many years preparing for this. No doubt they've got tunnels and ambush points laid out. Encounters with foreign fighters in Fallujah showed how organized terrorists can be on their own with only a few months preparation. Hezbolah has had years, with much better weaponry and the support of Syria and Iran. They pretty much want Israel to invade so they can wage an all-out guerrilla war. Hezbolah may not be able to win that war, but all they have to do is bleed Israel until the politics of it force them to leave, and Hezbolah can victory against the west.

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folder icon   07-22-2006, 02:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaggin

The ISAF doesn't exactly play a very big role in the actual war, and Canada's contribution is quite small. Only about 900 of the 8000 ISAF forces are Canadian, and Canada's role is almost entirely surveillence and logistic support. Saying Canada has no friendly fire incidents is like saying Costa Rica and Iceland have no friendly fire incidents. Interesting fact, but largely pointless since they're not involved in any wars(or even have militaries for that matter).


Acutally Canada has somewhere around 1200 to 2200 Troops in Afghanistan, and are part of a heavy offensive in the south. They are in fact fighting alongside your American troops (Along with the British), taking part in the same heavy firefights as your boys. I doubt the American media even mentions the fact that we're part of the offensive, but that's not surprising. In either case it's pretty irrelevant to claim one side is doing more than the other at this point, since they're both doing the same task.


And I've been reading some conflicting reports in regards to an all out invasion by Israel. Some articles suggest that they are only going to make small incursions into Lebanon, while other sources suggest an all out invasion is pending.

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folder icon   07-22-2006, 03:19 AM
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Israel is going to Invade Lebanon. Again.
This time for a short period of time, and only to reshape the landscape of the southern border, and I say it out of lack of better words.

It seems a few thousands emergency warrants to recruit some reserve soldiers have been sent out. We'll see how it develops. There's just no way in hell Israel is going to stay there longer for what the mission requires and that's a week or two, at most. I might be biting my tongue on this one, but Israeli citizens won't allow it to happen. We don't want a second Lebanon occupation.

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folder icon   07-22-2006, 04:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VeeGee
I might be biting my tongue on this one, but Israeli citizens won't allow it to happen. We don't want a second Lebanon occupation.
But sure as hell, your politicians will give it to you .

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folder icon   07-22-2006, 04:56 AM
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The government we have is tredding fragile ice. Since our political map has been revolutionized, the current leading party is under the looking glass more than the rest of our leading parties ever were. If they don't want to fall, they will do whatever the majority tells them to. If half of Israel doesn't want a second occupation, there won't be a second occupation. That's the principal on which this party was formed, to project the majority's concerns over the current Israeli-Palestinian situation, and oversee Israel's retreat from Palestinian territory.

This Lebanese war falls under that category. They're not Palestinian, but they're fighting for the same cause (and I'm sorry for generalizing this), which is eradicating Israel and handing Jerusalem back to the Muslim world. So as I said before, the flux of this war is dependant on the flux of Israeli majority. Right now, most of the nation is behind Israel's retaliation, but against any prolonged activity. The masses want a swift and precise payback, and that's what they're getting.

While I'm sorry for any innocent Lebanese lives taken, Hizbollah has purposely acted within civillian areas to prevent these kinds of attacks. So while air strikes indiscriminately kill sometimes, Israel wants to risk the lives of its soldiers as little as possible. When it becomes inevitable, then and only then is when we send in the cavalry.

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